Today’s weekly market commentary takes a break from Artificial Intelligence and instead examines food inflation, which has always been a concern for consumers. The attached piece looks at how recent disrupted grain shipments and higher farming costs have lifted agricultural commodity prices, and what that may potentially mean for investors.
The piece begins by explaining, “growing disruptions in grain exports and elevated production costs are creating global supply concerns. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for roughly 30% of global wheat exports in 2025, with most shipments moving through the Black Sea. Since July, escalating attacks on grain terminals and shipping infrastructure have disrupted exports, raising concerns about whether supply can efficiently reach global markets.” – WFII Chart of the Week 09/15/2026
From there, the enclosed chart plots the year-to-date returns of each major agricultural commodity. As can be seen, from December 31,2025 through August 31, 2026, almost all agricultural commodities (with the exception of coffee) have posted double digit gains. Most, in fact, have posted impressive double digit returns with wheat and soybean oil returning 47% each and diesel returning 57%. As it relates to diesel, in addition to its elevated price, fertilizer has also increased 13% on top of other heightened farm related costs. Those increased figures have, of course, increased overall output costs in the agricultural sector.
In terms of what this may mean for investors, the piece concludes that, “in our view, these risks are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, as the path toward a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war remains unclear and ongoing refining challenges drive elevated input costs for producers. Broad commodity exposure may offer a way to hedge against further increases in food and energy prices. We remain favorable on Commodities and view pullbacks as opportunities to add exposure, given our forecast for additional upside in the Bloomberg Commodity Index through 2027.” – WFII Chart of the Week 09/15/2026
The path from a wheat field to a grocery shelf is long, and today’s commodity gains may not translate directly into tomorrow’s food prices. Still, the pressures behind those gains are worth watching.
We would ask that you review the attached piece at your convenience and please let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to discuss it further. And as we always end this correspondence, please remember that regardless of current momentum and regardless of the key takeaways in this weekly perspective, we will continue to monitor and manage with a thoughtful approach based on your specific long-term objectives.
