Stocks fell Friday, adding to their weekly declines, as oil prices spiked and traders reacted to an unexpected drop in U.S. jobs data, as the unemployment rate went to 4.4% from 4.3%.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil broke above $90 per barrel and ended the week with a 35% gain — its biggest since oil futures trading began in 1983 — as investors weighed the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply. Oil surged Friday after President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that there won’t be a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war without an “unconditional surrender” from the Middle Eastern country.
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation intends to create a $20 billion reinsurance facility in an effort to get oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz (which supplies roughly 20% of global oil and natural gas) again.
U.S. crude oil was up more than 12% last Friday as some Gulf countries shut down oil production because they cannot export their crude through the Strait.
Last week, the S&P 500 shed 2%, while the 30-stock Dow fell 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.2%.
Looking ahead to this week, investors will be chiefly focused on the Iran war.
February inflation data will also be top of mind, with both consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data out along with personal income and spending.
Other key updates will include the second print of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, job openings and labor turnover survey, (JOLTS) data, and small business optimism.
Click on the Looking Ahead link, and you will see research written by Wells Fargo. Below, please find excerpts.
Week in review: March 2-6
Economic data
- The February jobs report showed unexpected softening in the labor market, with non-farm payrolls declining by 92,000 month-over-month and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%. The report added to the case for additional Fed interest rate cuts, though a new wave of inflation concerns offset the impact.
- The decline in non-farm payrolls was led by the healthcare industry, which saw the largest strike of healthcare workers in US history and amounted to a 28,000 detraction. This was followed by information jobs as employment in the industry continued its downward trend, having lost an average of 5000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Severe winter weather also contributed to the month-over-month decline.
- The labor force participation rate declined to 62.0%, the lowest in four years.
- The ADP employment report, in contrast, that 63 jobs were added in February.
- Education and health services continued to lead job growth, adding 58,000 jobs for the month. Meanwhile, professional and business services saw 30,000 job losses.
- With hiring concentrated rather than broad-based, the incentive for switching employers (as measured by the pay premium) declined to a record low.
- Report showed a similar picture as the number of layoff in February fell to 48,000, a 55% month over month decline, and nearly a quarter of the announcements came from the technology sector.
- So far in 2026, the primary reason for job cuts has been market and economic conditions.
- Hiring plans improved notably month-over-month well below year ago levels.
- Retail sales fell 0.2% in January with weather-related disruptions likely contributing to the contraction. However, capital control sales, (which feed directly into the good spending component of GDP) were up 0.3%.
- February Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) from the Institute for Supply Management showed almost boom-like conditions in the services sector and another month of expansion in manufacturing, printing at 56.1 and 52.4, respectively.
- Notably, services sentiment rose to its highest level in 3 1/2 years.
Looking Ahead to this week: March 9-13
U.S.
- The highlight early in the week will be the February CPI, out Wednesday. Attention will then shift to Friday’s releases, including January’s personal income, personal spending, and PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation); the second reading of Q4 GDP; preliminary March consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey from the university of Michigan; and the JOLTS report.
- Also on tap: February small business optimism, existing home sales, the Federal budget balance, and inflation expectations based the NY Fed’s survey. Rounding out the docket are January‘s trade balance, housing starts, preliminary building permits, preliminary durable goods orders, and household net worth.
- In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury department issues $119 billion in 3-, 10-, and 30-year securities.
Asia
- In China, the focus will be on the February CPI, Producer, Price Index (PPI), trade balance, and money supply.
- From Japan, look for February’s PPI and money stock; January’s labor cash earnings, household spending, and preliminary leading index; and finalized Q4 GDP.
- Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s preliminary Q4 GDP hits the tape, along with Australia’s February business confidence and March consumer confidence.
Europe
- Europe will announce regional January trade balance and industrial production data, Euroarea finalized February CPIs, and the Eurozone’s March investor confidence. Germany will release its January factory orders.
- From the U.K., watch for January’s Index of Services, manufacturing production, and monthly GDP.
