What we learned last week:
“It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and the wind blow cold: when it is summer in the light, and winter in the shade.” – Charles Dickens, Great Expectations
U.S. – Iran tensions remained in focus last week as all three of the major indexes suffered a 5th consecutive weekly loss.
Without going into the mechanics of the market there are a couple stories driving the market narrative. Dominating the markets focus is the elevated levels of geopolitical tension between U.S. and Iran. A prolonged conflict and higher oil prices raise concerns for lower growth the rest of the year.
The back and forth between the two countries, fostering uncertainty in markets looks like this:
- President Trump postpones strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after ‘constructive’ talks with Iran to end the war.
- Iran denies U.S. talks and Gulf states in the middle east consider joining the war with military action
- U.S. sends Iran a 15-point plan to end war
- Iran denies it is negotiating and the 15-point plan is one sided
- Hopes are lifted, oil prices fall Wednesday, when Iran laid out a five-point plan
- Oil prices pushed higher Friday finishing the week over $100 a barrel and Mag 7 stocks shed billions as attacks continued across the Middle East
Capping the volatile week was The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reporting a nearly 6% decrease in March to its lowest level since late 2025 – snapping a four-month streak of gains.
This week volatility is likely to persist. Even after tensions settle in the Middle East investors have AI on their radar. The Mag 7 stocks and tech sector stocks have struggled to find its footing after leading the way the last three years. Conversation about a rotation out of tech and to stocks in more cyclical sectors has been bubbling up for months and the events in Iran may have provided a boost to this developing story.
What’s ahead this week:
Economic Events
- The week is full of labor market reports. Job openings, ADP private jobs, Initial jobless claims, and the non-farm payroll for March from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- February retail sales will be in focus as investors consider the strength of the US consumer.
Earnings
- Consumer company Nike reports Q3 fiscal year 2026 earnings. Investors are looking for the sportswear giant to show further progress on its turnaround efforts.
- Manufacturer and seller of processed and packaged foods Conagra, reports Q3 fiscal year 2026 earnings. Consumption trends are weakening in this group and inflation threatens profitability.
My goal is for you to feel educated and informed about variables we do and don’t have control over and find ourselves working within. I hope to do it in an informative and relatable way. As always, I value your relationship and planning objectives – my door is always open for conversation.
