Welcome to Beyond the Numbers with the Beck Investment Group—the new name for our weekly commentary. While the title has evolved, our core mission remains unchanged: delivering a clear, straightforward perspective on the forces driving the markets and your wealth.
Before diving into the numbers this week, we take a moment to pause. Marking the 25th anniversary of September 11th, we honor the memory of the innocent lives lost and remember the quiet heroism and resilience shown on that solemn day.
Additionally, to all of our friends and families celebrating Rosh Hashanah, we wish you a sweet, healthy, and prosperous New Year.
The Nasdaq Composite bounced 1% Friday, a move that propelled the index back above its 21-day moving average. However, the tech-heavy index logged a weekly decline of 0.7%. For 2026, the index holds a gain of 13.3%.
The S&P 500 popped 0.8% Friday, ending a hair below its 21-day line, snapping a two-week winning streak, falling 0.8% for the week. The benchmark index remains up 11.9% for the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared best out of the major indexes Friday, just edging the Nasdaq, as it too popped 1%. But it fell 1.6% for the week and ended below the important 50-day moving average.
The indexes shrugged off the August consumer price index report. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% vs. July, which was just above expectations of 0.2%, according to Econoday estimates. The annualized 2.4% lift was as expected. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (M/M) and 3.4% on an annualized basis, meeting views.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose another 3 basis points last Friday to end the week at 4.97%, a significant advance on last week’s level of 4.78%, as the Treasury’s buyback operation failed to calm markets.
Oil prices also ended the week sharply higher amid news of notable Houthi progress in seizing control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.1% Friday to $100.31 per barrel. This marked an advance of around 10% from last week.
The two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes Wednesday, is the banner economic event this week. The post-meeting comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh could also move markets.
Other noteworthy data points dropping in the coming week include the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Tuesday and U.S. retail sales data for August, which drops Wednesday.
Investors should also note that triple witching (options expiration) is set for Friday.
Earnings season has slowed to a crawl, with only a handful of firms reporting. Noteworthy reports include artificial intelligence infrastructure play Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) and homebuilder Lennar (LEN).
Please click herefor the Looking Ahead report written by Wells Fargo. It contains interesting graphs, tables, and charts. Below are excerpts from that research.
Week in review: September 8-11
Economic news
- August inflation data largely matched expectations, with the consumer price index CPI rising 0.4% M/M and 3.4% year-over-year (Y/Y).
- The persistence of inflation suggests that progress toward the Fed’s 2% target has stalled. As a result, markets are now pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a rate hike at this week’s meeting.
- Energy prices rose 1% M/M, grocery prices were mostly unchanged, and rent increased a modest 0.2% M/M. The ongoing data center buildout trend also remains a support for inflation in select categories. Prices for computer software and accessories climbed to a record 25.4% Y/Y, while computers, peripherals, and smart home devices increased 8.4% Y/Y, highlighting continued inflationary pressure from technology-related spending.
- August producer prices rose slightly more than expected. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 5.4% Y/Y, slightly above expectations of 5.3%. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.4%, the largest increase in three months, driven largely by higher energy costs. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, PPI rose 4.6% Y/Y, in line with expectations, and 0.2% M/M, slightly below expectations.
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 47.8, well below consensus estimates of 51, as inflation expectations rose.
- Small business optimism weakened in August as concerns over slower sales, inflation pressures, labor quality, and moderating profit trends weighed on confidence. The index fell 1.1 points to 98.7, below expectations of 99.3.
- High mortgage rates continue to dampen home-buying demand. Existing home sales in August fell 2.0% M/M to an annualized rate of 3.98 million. Sales decreased across most U.S. regions except the west.
- As home sales struggle and mortgage rates remain elevated, housing inventory increased 5.9% Y/Y to 1.62 million, equating to a 4.9 month supply at current sales pace. Meanwhile, the median sales price rose 1.6% Y/Y to $429,100.
Looking ahead to this week: September 14 -18
U.S.
- The highlight will be the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, where investors will focus on the updated Summary of Economic Projections, and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments as markets remain split on a potential rate hike.
- Retail sales, industrial production, July’s business inventories, August leading index, and import and export price indexes will be released.
- Rounding out the docket is a flurry of housing market data, including September’s homebuilder sentiment, August pending Home sales, housing starts, and preliminary building permits.
Asia
- In China, the focus will be on August’s industrial production, fixed asset investment, home prices, and surveyed jobless rate.
- In Japan, investors will be watching the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting Thursday and Friday, alongside key economic data releases including August CPI and trade balance figures, as well as July’s Tertiary Industry Index, core machine orders, and final industrial production.
- Elsewhere in the region, key releases include South Korea’s August PPI, and export price index, as well as Australia’s August leading index.
Europe
- In Europe, investors will focus on August CPI readings, the Euroszone’s September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, July industrial production and trade balance data, and European Commission President, Ursula von der Layen’s State of the Union address.
- The Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday will headline a busy week in the U.K. with key releases including August CPI, retail sales, PPI, and jobless claims, along with July unemployment, wage growth, and employment data.
- Key data from Germany will include August PPI and September ZEW Current Conditions Index.
