Beyond the Numbers: September 21, 2026

Financial markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) first interest rate hike in years as well as ongoing Middle East flareups.

The Nasdaq Composite squeezed out a daily gain of 0.4% last Friday. It finished above its major and short-term moving averages amid a 0.7% gain for the week. The tech-heavy index rallied powerfully in its last two sessions to help it extend its gain for the year to 14.1%.

The S&P 500 turned in a more modest lift of 0.2% on Friday. While this was enough for it to end the week back above both its 21-day line and its 50-day moving average, it still suffered a 0.1% decline over the week, but it is up 11.8% in 2026.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the other major indexes Friday as it dropped 0.2%, and fell 1.7% for the week. That was its third weekly decline in a row. It also lost ground on its 50-day moving average.

Second-quarter earnings season wrapped up with all but one sector beating earnings growth estimates.

On the economic front, consumer spending was a bright spot, with retail sales more than reversing the prior month’s decline.

Manufacturing activity softened, the Leading Index dropped slightly, housing market challenges persisted, while import prices moved higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points on Friday to end the week at 5%. This is a psychologically important level to watch.

Oil prices slipped, with West Texas Intermediate futures dropping 2.6% Friday to $99.29 per barrel.

The biggest moment of the coming week is undoubtedly the meeting between Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi in Washington, which kicks off Thursday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting the communist country’s vice premier, He Lifeng, who is responsible for economic and financial affairs, over the weekend for final negotiations ahead of the high-level summit. Access to rare earth materials and artificial intelligence could be among the topics on the agenda.

This week’s economic data will include Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys, the release of the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September on Friday and new-home sales data for August on Thursday.

However, there will be a flurry of Fedspeak, with New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee among those making appearances.

It is also a light week for earnings, with Costco Wholesale (COST), Darden Restaurants (DRI) and KB Home (KBH) among the noteworthy quarterly reports due.

Please click here for the Looking Ahead report written by Wells Fargo. It contains interesting graphs, tables, and charts. Below are excerpts from that research.

Week in review: September 14-18

Economic news

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 3.75% to 4%. Updated Fed projections also signaled a more hawkish outlook, with 16 of the 18 officials who submitted estimates expecting at least one additional 25-basis point rate hike by year-end.
  • Economic forecasts were largely unchanged, with gross domestic product (GDP) and 2026 inflation revised slightly higher and unemployment revised lower to 4.1% for 2026 and 2027.
• August retail sales showed strength in U.S. consumers. Sales rose 1.2% month-over-month (M/M), the largest increase in five months and well above expectations for a 0.8% gain. Strength remained broad across categories, with 12 of 13 retail categories posting increased sales. The one category to post declining sales was building material and garden equipment stores.
• August’s leading index, a gauge designed to signal the future direction of economic activity, fell 0.1% M/M to 99.5, below median estimates for a 0.1% increase.
• July business inventories rose 0.8% M/M following a revised 0.1% increase in June, remaining in line with economists’ expectations surveyed by Bloomberg.
• August industrial production stalled, with output unchanged M/M, falling below expectations of a 0.3% increase.
• The housing market remains under pressure, and recent data suggests those challenges are likely to persist. Building permits fell 2.7% M/M in August, a larger decline than economists expected, while August housing starts dropped 2.6% M/M despite forecasts for a 6.7% increase. August pending home sales rose 0.3% during the month but remained 4.9% lower than last year. Together, these reports highlight ongoing affordability challenges as elevated home prices and mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand.
• Import prices for the month of August climbed by 0.7% M/M, well above economists’ expectations of a softer 0.4% increase. Import prices are up 7.0% year-over-year (Y/Y).

Looking ahead to this week: September 21-25

U.S.

• This week’s key economic data will provide a first look at September. PMI readings for both the manufacturing and service sectors on Wednesday, followed on Friday with August update on capital and durable goods orders.
• Other reports that could influence markets include the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey. Additionally, investors will be watching August new home sales and final building permits for additional signals on the health and direction of the housing market.
• Rounding out the docket is the Q2 current account balance. Beyond data, investors will also be monitoring several high profile geopolitical developments. In New York, the United Nations General Assembly’s High-level Week will bring together global leaders for discussions on economic, security, and foreign policy issues.
• In Washington D.C., new tariffs are on hold after the U.S. and Chinese presidents meet.

Asia

• The focus of an otherwise data-light week from China will be the one- and five-year loan prime rates for September.
• In Japan, attention will likely center on preliminary September PMI readings for the manufacturing and service sectors, along with August department store sales.
• Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s September consumer confidence will hit the tape, along with Australia’s preliminary September PMI readings, and August labor market data.

Europe

• In Europe, investors will be focused on preliminary PMI and consumer confidence readings. In the U.K., key releases include September house prices and August public sector net borrowing.
• Elsewhere, investors will be watching Germany’s September IFO business climate survey and France’s September manufacturing confidence index for additional insight into business sentiment across Europe.