Looking Ahead: July 27, 2026

Since the war in Iran restarted in the beginning of July, markets have been under pressure. The stock market rally retreated last week, with losses once again concentrated in tech and AI stocks. The Nasdaq tumbled to close the week just below its early June lows, which is a bearish sign. The S&P 500 regained and lost its 50-day line during the week. The Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq) was off more than 2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a third-consecutive week.

On the economic front, July Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) data remains in expansionary territory, with manufacturing activity unexpectedly falling and services activity was stronger than expected.

Initial weekly unemployment claims dropped to their lowest level since late 1969. Economists were expecting claims to edge upward around 212,000, but the actual figure came in significantly below expectations, sending the four-week moving average down to 207,500. This sounds good, but the underlying mechanics tell a slightly more nuanced story of a shrinking active workforce and re-employment friction.

A bright spot was in new home sales as the June report exceeded forecasts.

Semiconductor stocks led the market lower ahead of an IPO of a Chinese memory company that is expected to begin trading today.

Both Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet declined about 8% last week, as investors are concerned about the spending for their data center build outs.

Quick note: When you see a ticker symbol in parentheses (like AAPL or BAC), that means it’s an active holding in our strategies. If a company is mentioned without a ticker, we’re just sharing our take on it as part of the broader market story.

Apple (AAPL), which has sat out the AI spending race, is doing well. Apple stock was little changed last week, but bounced 3.4% last Friday. Earnings are Thursday night.

Tesla had its worst week since 2020, down almost 18% after reporting disappointing quarterly results.

Bank of America (BAC) is benefiting from the recent sector rotation into financial, medical, transportation and other sectors and out of the AI megatrend.

Bank of America, at 122 years old, continues to be among America’s top banks. It’s reported double-digit sales and earnings growth every quarter for the past year. Its stock rose from 46.12 on March 19 to close at a record 62.05 Friday.

U.S. crude oil closed over $90 a barrel, as the Hoothies attacked ships in the Red Sea, and U.S. air strikes on Iran continued. Oil is up almost 57% year-to-date.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose a dozen basis points to close just under 4.7%, reaching the highest level since the conflict began.

Supply of bonds continues to grow. We’ve had a lot of issuance of corporate debt in the recent months, putting upward pressure on bond yields. This week we have $183 billion in Treasury issuance (2-,5-,& 7-year maturities) along with the Fed meeting, PCE inflation, and the first look at second-quarter GDP.

This week, over a third of the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings.

Week in review: July 20-24

Economic news

• Preliminary July PMI data from S&P Global showed that economic activity was still in expansionary territory. The acceleration in services helped lift the broader composite measure above forecasts.
  • July’s manufacturing PMI registered 53.8, below economists’ expectations of 54.4 and essentially unchanged from June’s 53.9 reading.
  • July‘s services PMI increased to 53.2 from 51.2 in June, reaching its highest level since November 2025. The improvement is attributed to stronger demand across the services sector.
  • July’s composite PMI rose to 53.6, modestly, exceeding expectations and highlighting an overall acceleration in private-sector business activity during the month. Strength in services more than offset soft manufacturing conditions.
• June home sales increased 1.6% month-over-month (M/M) to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 628K, while home prices continued to ease from recent highs.
  • Regional performance remained uneven. The South, the nation’s largest housing market, drove the overall gain, with sales increasing 9.9% to 412,000 units. The Northeast and Midwest also posted modest increases in activity. Meanwhile, new home sales in the West fell 22.4% to 104,000 units.
  • The median new home sales price declined 3.3% from May to $398,300, potentially providing relief for prospective homebuyers facing affordability pressures.
• The June leading index fell 0.2% M/M, slightly below economists’ expectations of -0.1% M/M.

Looking ahead to this week: July 27-31

U.S.

• Earnings reports will certainly be the focus of investors.
• The Fed’s decision on the federal funds rate and comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh will be key.
• On Thursday, watch for Q2 GDP, the PCE deflator, and June’s personal income and spending report.
• The University of Michigan’s July report on finalized consumer sentiment is scheduled for release.
• June’s preliminary durable goods orders, advance goods trade balance, and the Q2 Employment Cost Index will be revealed.

Asia

• In China, July‘s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are scheduled for release.
• The Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting Thursday and Friday, while economic data out from the country includes July‘s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) and consumer confidence index, in addition to June’s retail sales, preliminary industrial production, jobless rate, services Producer Price Index (PPI), and housing starts.
• From South Korea, watch for July‘s trade balance and consumer confidence, along with June’s industrial production and retail sales.
• Australia’s Q2 PPI and June CPI, building approvals, and private sector credit hit the tape.

Europe

• In Europe, the focus will be on preliminary readings of Q2 GDP and July CPIs, along with the Eurozone’s June unemployment rate and money supply.
• The Bank of England will hold a policy meeting on Thursday, with data releases from the country, including July‘s house prices, June’s consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and money supply.
• From France, watch for June’s PPI and July’s consumer confidence, while additional German releases include July’s IFO business climate survey and unemployment claims.