With major U.S. equity indexes trading near record levels, some investors wonder whether now is still a good time to enter the market. History suggests that market highs are a normal feature of long-term growth and, by themselves, have not been a reliable signal to stay on the sidelines. So today’s weekly market commentary is a nice, high-level analysis, reminding investors that record highs are not a reason to wait.
The enclosed chart measures the return of the S&P 500 Index, and the data runs from January 1,1928 through August 24, 2026. The chart compares the average one-year return, the two-year return, and the three-year return when an investor invested on any trading day versus when they invested at an all-time new high. The purple bars represent investments on any day. And the orange bars represent investments after an all-time high is reached.
As can be seen from the chart, the average one-year price returns when investing on any day versus investing after the S&P 500 Index hits a new all-time high is the same at 8% under both circumstances. When looking at the two-year return, it can be seen that the return when investing on any day, the average return is 16% while the average return when investing at a new high is 14%. And then finally when looking at the three-year return, the average when investing on any day is 24% while the average return when investing at a new all-time high is 22%.
As the piece states in the close, “investors should not rush into stocks simply because markets are near record highs. History suggests that all-time highs, on their own, have not been reliable signals to delay investing. Markets often reach successive highs during extended bull markets as economic growth and corporate earnings expand. In our view, for long-term investors, record highs should be viewed as a normal part of the wealth-building journey rather than a cause for concern.” – WFII Chart of the Week 09/09/2026
We would ask that you review the attached piece at your convenience and please let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to discuss it further. And as we always end this correspondence, please remember that regardless of current momentum and regardless of the key takeaways in this weekly perspective, we will continue to monitor and manage with a thoughtful approach based on your specific long-term objectives.
