Today’s weekly market commentary is a reminder that the world is an uncertain place and there will always be negative news which can make investors wary. But those who have remained disciplined and who have stay invested, despite the negative news, have historically been rewarded over time. The enclosed piece and enclosed chart highlights major news events over the past 50 years. These events are, of course, potential reasons not to invest. But the chart also points out the stock market return (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) for each year highlighted, despite the volatile events, as well as the growth of a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index made at that time.
As the chart shows, in 1976 investors were facing high inflation, high unemployment, and a massive earthquake in China. However, the stock market returned 23.93% that year. And if you had invested $10,000 in 1976 and stayed invested, your investment would have grown to almost $3 million by 12/31/25. In 1986 we had the Cold War, the Chernobyl meltdown, and the Iran-Contra Affair. The stock market returned 18.67% that year, and a $10,000 investment would have grown to almost $770,000 by 12/31/2025. In 1996, Alan Greenspan delivered his “irrational exuberance” speech, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and there was a bombing at the Atlanta Olympics. Yet the S&P 500 returned 22.96% that year and a $10,000 investment would have grown to $192,167 by the end of 2025.
The chart continues on, and in 2006 there was a housing bubble, subprime loans were surging, and global credit risks were rising. The global financial crisis followed shortly thereafter, but in 2006 the stock market returned 15.79% and that same $10,000 investment grew to over $80,000 by 12/31/2025. In 2016 there was a contentious presidential election between Trump and Clinton, there was the Brexit vote and subsequent fallout, and a Zika virus outbreak. The market returned 11.96% in 2006 and a $10,000 investment grew to almost $40,000 by 12/31/2025.
And now in 2026, investors are facing the fear we are in a A.I. bubble, the U.S. has ousted the leader of Venezuela, and we are facing another contentious round of midyear elections. Simply put, and the takeaway from the piece, the author ends by asking, “What will 2026 bring? Even if it’s a down year for stocks like 2022 when the S&P 500 Index lost more than 18%, history suggests the market is likely to be resilient and reward investors over time.” – CCWP046_0126
We would ask that you review the attached piece at your convenience and please let us know if you have any questions or if you would like to discuss it further. And as we always end this correspondence, please remember that regardless of current momentum and regardless of the key takeaways in this weekly perspective, we will continue to monitor and manage with a thoughtful approach based on your specific long-term objectives. Thank you for your continued confidence and look forward to speaking soon.
