What we learned last week:
“Morning will come and I’ll do what’s right. Just give me till then to give up this fight.” – ‘I can’t Make you Love Me’, Bonnie Raitt, 1991
Major stock indexes bounced during the holiday shortened week after five consecutive weeks of losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index led with a rise of over 4%.
Stocks popped on hopes that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran would ease after Tuesday’s comments from Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian that said his country had the “necessary will” to end the ongoing war.
Over the past five weeks stocks have diverged from oil prices. As oil prices rose, stock indexes fell. Last week stocks ignored the rise in oil prices which threaten future growth.
WTI, domestic oil prices, settled above $100 for the first time since 2022 to start the week. Traders reacted to a Wednesday evening speech from President Trump which did little to inspire confidence. Thursday Trump reiterated his threats to hit Iran “extremely hard”. Oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel to finish the week.
Turning to economic activity, last week’s updates were supportive of growth. The US consumer makes up two-thirds of GDP. U.S. retail sales increased by the most in seven months in February. Investors will be looking for how rising gasoline prices impacted March’s spending.
The week was wrapped up with a focus on the labor market. Thursday’s initial jobless claims came near a two-year low and the report highlights the “low-hire, low-fire” story the labor market seems to be stuck in.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released an encouraging nonfarm payroll report Friday while markets were closed. Nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 during the month of March, a reversal from the 133,000 declines in February and better than the 59,000 expectations from economists.
The headline driven market will continue to react to events in Iran and specifically the strait of Hormuz, where an average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products were shipped in 2025. President Trump as vowed to bring “Hell” to Iran if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened by Tuesday, 8 p.m. Eastern.
Hand in hand with the price of energy, investors will have an eye on inflation data this week as we look for sings prices are rising at a faster than the expected rate.
What’s Ahead This Week
Economic Events
- Inflation is back in the spotlight with two key inflation reports:
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which measures the change in prices for goods and services purchased by US consumers for the month of February.
- Also, Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change over time in prices paid by by consumers for a specific basket of goods and services for the month of March
- The Federal Reserve March meeting minutes will be released giving investors insight into potential future Fed policy action.
Earnings
- Quarterly earnings will pick up next week and the following with companies in the financial sector reporting. This week we have three companies from the consumer sector reporting
- Apparel company Levi Strauss
- Delta Airlines
- Beverage company Constellation Brands
My goal is for you to feel educated and informed about variables we do and don’t have control over and find ourselves working within. I hope to do it in an informative and relatable way. As always, I value your relationship and planning objectives – my door is always open for conversation.
